{ "title": "US Cities: Political Lean, Crime, and Prosperity", "compiled_at": "2026-11-06 01:06 PM CST", "time_zone": "America/Chicago", "cities": 30, "timeline": [ 1975, 2024 ], "cohort": "30 largest incorporated places by July 1, 2024 Census population, held fixed; not all U.S. cities", "coverage": { "dem": { "min_year": 1976, "max_year": 2024, "years": [ 1976, 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020, 2024 ], "observations": 390, "cities_latest_year": 30 }, "rep": { "min_year": 1976, "max_year": 2024, "years": [ 1976, 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020, 2024 ], "observations": 390, "cities_latest_year": 30 }, "other": { "min_year": 1976, "max_year": 2024, "years": [ 1976, 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020, 2024 ], "observations": 390, "cities_latest_year": 30 }, "violent": { "min_year": 1975, "max_year": 2024, "years": [ 1975, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1981, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "observations": 1411, "cities_latest_year": 29 }, "property": { "min_year": 2016, "max_year": 2024, "years": [ 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "observations": 220, "cities_latest_year": 29 }, "income_nominal": { "min_year": 1989, "max_year": 2024, "years": [ 1989, 1993, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "observations": 931, "cities_latest_year": 30 }, "income_real": { "min_year": 1989, "max_year": 2024, "years": [ 1989, 1993, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "observations": 931, "cities_latest_year": 30 }, "poverty": { "min_year": 1989, "max_year": 2024, "years": [ 1989, 1993, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "observations": 931, "cities_latest_year": 30 } }, "sources": [ { "id": "algara", "name": "Amlani & Algara (2021), Partisanship & Nationalization: county presidential returns, Harvard Dataverse v1.1", "url": "https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/DGUMFI", "download": "https://dataverse.harvard.edu/api/access/datafile/5028532", "license": "CC0 1.0", "use": "1976\u20131996 presidential results; extracted vote counts and calculated Democratic, Republican, other shares of total votes.", "as_of": "2026-11-06 01:06 PM CST" }, { "id": "medsl", "name": "MIT Election Data + Science Lab, County Presidential Election Returns 2000\u20132024; normalized ElectionData.dev mirror", "url": "https://electiondata.dev/datasets/county-president/", "primary": "https://electionlab.mit.edu/data", "download": "https://api.electiondata.dev/v1/county-president/download/county-president.csv", "license": "CC0 1.0 (MEDSL data)", "use": "2000\u20132024 presidential results. Group candidate votes by party; totalvotes counted once per county-year, not summed across candidates.", "as_of": "2026-11-06 01:06 PM CST" }, { "id": "marshall", "name": "The Marshall Project, Crime in Context / FBI UCR, 1975\u20132015", "url": "https://github.com/themarshallproject/city-crime", "download": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/themarshallproject/city-crime/master/data/ucr_crime_1975_2015.csv", "license": "Underlying federal UCR figures are public domain; repository has no explicit blanket license. Attribution retained; additional state/local source terms may differ.", "use": "Published violent-crime rate per 100,000. Partial-year records explicitly marked <12 months excluded conservatively. No property-crime series in this source.", "as_of": "2026-11-06 01:06 PM CST" }, { "id": "fbi", "name": "FBI UCR Crime in the United States: Table 6 (2016) and Table 8 (2017\u20132019)", "url": "https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s", "downloads": [ "https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2016/crime-in-the-u.s.-2016/tables/table-6/table-6.xls", "https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2017/crime-in-the-u.s.-2017/tables/table-8/table-8.xls", "https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2018/crime-in-the-u.s.-2018/tables/table-8/table-8.xls", "https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2019/crime-in-the-u.s.-2019/tables/table-8/table-8.xls" ], "license": "U.S. federal government data, public domain", "use": "Reported offenses divided by FBI agency population \u00d7 100,000. No interpolation.", "as_of": "2026-11-06 01:06 PM CST" }, { "id": "dw", "name": "FBI UCR CIUS Table 8, 2021\u20132024, CSV transcription by DW (Gianna-Carina Gruen / Sarah Steffen)", "url": "https://github.com/dw-data/US-crime-rates-2024", "primary": "https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/downloads", "downloads": [ "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/dw-data/US-crime-rates-2024/main/FBI_crimedata-2021.csv", "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/dw-data/US-crime-rates-2024/main/FBI_crimedata-2022.csv", "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/dw-data/US-crime-rates-2024/main/FBI_crimedata-2023.csv", "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/dw-data/US-crime-rates-2024/main/FBI_crimedata-2024.csv" ], "license": "Underlying FBI federal data, public domain; DW repository has no explicit blanket license. Numeric extract attributed; not a license for other DW content.", "use": "Violent and property rates calculated from reported counts and FBI agency population. LA 2024 explicitly marked noncomparable. Missing agency-years remain missing.", "as_of": "2026-11-06 01:06 PM CST" }, { "id": "census", "name": "U.S. Census Bureau SAIPE income and poverty estimates, accessed via FRED public tables", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/saipe.html", "mirror": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/release?rid=346", "license": "Underlying U.S. federal government data, public domain; FRED is the access provider", "use": "County median household income and all-ages poverty rate. County estimates for 1989, 1993, 1995 and 1997\u20132024 (gaps retained); DC additionally has a 1996 estimate. Income deflated to 2024 dollars with national CPI-U; not adjusted for local cost of living. Per-city series URLs retained.", "as_of": "2026-11-06 01:06 PM CST" }, { "id": "cpi", "name": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI-U all items U.S. city average, NSA (CPIAUCNS), accessed via FRED", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/CPIAUCNS", "license": "Underlying U.S. federal government data, public domain", "use": "Arithmetic mean of 12 monthly observations per year; real income = nominal income \u00d7 2024 annual CPI / current annual CPI.", "as_of": "2026-11-06 01:06 PM CST" }, { "id": "pop", "name": "U.S. Census Bureau Vintage 2024 incorporated-place population ranking (DW copy)", "url": "https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2020s-total-cities-and-towns.html", "download": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/dw-data/US-crime-rates-2024/main/USCensusBureau-PopulationEstimates_SUB-IP-EST2024-ANNRNK.xlsx", "license": "Underlying U.S. federal government data, public domain", "use": "Predeclared top 30 places by July 1, 2024 population; cohort held fixed for all years. No cities dropped based on outcomes.", "as_of": "2026-11-06 01:06 PM CST" }, { "id": "map", "name": "U.S. Census 2024 Gazetteer places; us-atlas 3.0.1 state outlines", "url": "https://www.census.gov/geographies/reference-files/time-series/geo/gazetteer-files.html", "downloads": [ "https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip", "https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/us-atlas@3/states-10m.json" ], "license": "Census federal data public domain; us-atlas ISC (license bundled in vendor/)", "use": "City Census internal-point coordinates, not addresses or data-area boundaries. Schematic state outline locator only. Color represents the selected county/agency statistic; it is not a city-proper choropleth.", "as_of": "2026-11-06 01:06 PM CST" } ], "methods": [ "Political lean is presidential vote share among votes cast, not mayoral party control, party registration, or opinion of all residents. Shares use all reported presidential votes; other = total minus Democratic minus Republican.", "Political and economic data use the explicitly named county proxy, not city proper (except coterminous equivalents). Cities crossing county lines are not fully represented. NYC uses Manhattan only.", "Crime is agency-reported offenses per 100,000 agency residents; not victimization survey data or a guarantee of true incidence. Historical agency populations, boundaries and counting rules vary.", "No carry-forward or interpolation. The year slider displays exact-year values only. Non-election years have no political result. Charts do not join missing years.", "Violent crime starts 1975; 2020 not harmonized in this build. Property crime starts 2016 with a 2020 gap and other agency omissions. This is NOT a complete 50-year matched panel.", "Income/poverty start 1989, with early gaps. Income uses national CPI-U annual average and is shown in 2024 dollars, not local purchasing power. SAIPE model methods and population estimates can change; uncertainty intervals are not plotted.", "The 2013 revised rape definition and the 2021 NIBRS transition affect comparability. LA 2024 is specifically noncomparable. Louisville and Indianapolis consolidation/mergers also alter police jurisdiction.", "This is descriptive correlation only, not causal identification. Demographics, industry mix, national recessions, population change, policing, migration within the country and reporting practices can affect both politics and outcomes. No causal effect or partisan conclusion is estimated." ], "software": { "Chart.js": "4.4.8, MIT; local vendor/chart.umd.js with LICENSE" } }